What you need to know about a potential disruption of the polar vortex
NEW YORK (WABC) -- This is the time of year when you start hearing about the polar vortex again. Especially on social media. And now, there are signs it could weaken or become disrupted in November - much earlier than usual. Potentially one of the earliest such episodes on record.
But don't panic! The polar vortex is a normal feature of our atmosphere. When it weakens, it CAN increase the chances of cold Arctic air pushing south — but that doesn't guarantee a big cold outbreak.
The now LIKELY November disruption is certainly worth watching. It does put a colder than average pattern on the table later November into December, but where and how strong? Here's the process that may unfold.
Think of the polar vortex as a large circulation of very cold air high above the Arctic. Strong winds normally help keep that cold air circulating around the pole - corralled if you will.
When the vortex is disrupted, weakened, and stretched, it's a little like changing the traffic pattern on THE WEATHER highway above us. That change can eventually influence the jet stream below, making its path wavier and allowing cold Arctic air to push farther south.
Now keep in mind, this process can take weeks to influence the weather closer to the surface, and its effects aren't guaranteed.
The WEAKENING polar vortex may open the door to colder air, but it doesn't tell us when that air arrives, how cold it gets, and how long it stays. In addition, the Arctic air may not be aimed directly at the US - there are signs the Europe and Asia could be impacted the most by this possible upcoming event.
And this fall and winter, there's another major player: a very strong El Niño - influencing the jet stream and storm track, with a tendency toward milder conditions across the northern U.S.
Now the El Niño doesn't cancel out the Polar Vortex. These patterns aren't necessarily fighting each other. But, depending on the weather pattern in place they can reinforce each other, and other times their effects can compete. Make no mistake, how and when these patterns interact — will help determine our weather in second half of November throughout the winter.
In the meantime, keep track of our forecast, not just the headline.
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